[Lloyd’s List, 8 June
2016: “Suez Canal offers up to 65% discount for Asia-North America east coast
carriers”]
____
A few weeks ago I was commenting on the MoU Suez and Panama
were signing, surprisingly with the blessing of the United States. I was saying
that we should keep an eye on this development, for, although the MoU was
described -as it is common in this type of agreements- as a “technical
cooperation and information exchange agreement", its intentions could be
quite different (i.e. collusion). Apparently "the plan" didn't quite
work and the result, as was to be expected, is outright head-to-head price war.
Panama is again engaging in new demand forecasting studies. In
these, Panama should keep in mind that, in servicing the US East Coast, the
role of Suez and of the Mediterranean hubs (Malta-Algeciras-but particularly
Tangiers) is increasing. This is so, not so much in order to save on fuel costs,
but mostly because carriers are able to feeder, from these hubs, the increasing
trade of West Africa.
If to the above one would add: a) the new generation of
containerships (too large for the Panama Canal); b) the interest of China in
Port Said and in the Nicaragua canal; c) China’s grandiose, US$ 1 trillion “One
Belt One Road” network and, in this context, China’s interest in the Mediterranean
ports (Venice, Piraeus), East African ports (Mombasa, Djibouti), and Gulf ports
(Oman, Qatar), the future prospects of the Panama Canal do not look, at least to
me, as promising as one might like them to be.
HE Haralambides
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