These days every year is the time of predictions and I have
never shied away from them. Here are therefore my predictions, not for 2017 but
for 2027.
Autonomous (self-driving) cars are here to stay and the
plans of manufacturers point at an exponential future growth. Consumers have
already expressed their preferences for reading; working; meeting; or chatting
on their cellphone in the car, rather than driving.
The internet of things (IoT) is already changing our
mobility behavior and, with applications like Uber, as well as GPS navigators
such as Waze and Sygic, our car is already connected to all others. This has
the potential to alleviate much of our transport externalities, such as
accidents, congestion and air pollution, and lead to a much better, and more
efficient, use of road infrastructure.
We are using our car only for 10% of its time and that’s a
terrible waste; car-pooling (in autonomous vehicles) will increase. Private transportation
services will be demand-driven: I will have a car waiting outside my door only
when I need it. I won’t need half an hour every evening to find a parking spot
in the neighborhood, nor would I need to pay car ownership taxes for having a
car gathering rust on my sidewalk. Once it has dropped me off, the car could go
and park itself at a specially designated parking area, hopefully outside our
congested cities. Residential areas will again become what the word says: "residential".
Considering the above, at some point in the near future, car manufacturing will
start declining precipitously. The end of car ownership is here.
Happy New Year 2017 to all.
HH
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